Holiday Hiring Update: October Seasonal Hiring Best Since 1999

Holiday hiring got off to its strongest start in 14 years, as retail employment grew by 159,500* in October, according to an analysis of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data by global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

The 159,500 net new jobs in retail last month marks a 6.7 percent increase from October 2012, when retailers increased their payrolls by 149,400.   It was the most new hires in the first month of the annual holiday hiring period since 1999, when retail employment expanded by 172,200 in October.

The strong start bodes well for a holiday hiring season that stretches from October through December, with the heaviest retail workforce additions, typically occurring in November.  Last year, the three-month hiring period resulted in 751,800 new jobs being added by retailers; the most since 2000, when retailers added 788,200 workers during the final three months of the year.

Last year’s holiday hiring binge brought retail employment in the sector to 15,538,300 in December, the month in which retail employment generally reaches its annual peak. That was the highest number of retail workers in December, since 2007, when employment reached 16,156,400.

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Seasonal Hiring Through October 2013

Check out who is hiring for the season. Let us know if there are others!

Seasonal Hiring Announcements, So Far

 

**In addition to Wal-Mart’s hiring of 55,000 seasonal workers, the company announced it will also expand 70,000 jobs from part-time to permanent part-time or full-time positions.

Seasonal Hiring Up More Than 10%

Despite some year-end uncertainty related to fiscal cliffs, a devastating hurricane and election-year politicking, retailers were confident enough in the final three months of 2012 to ramp up holiday hiring to its highest level in six years, according to an analysis of government employment data released by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Employment in the retail sector increased by a net 728,300 jobs, between October 1 and December 31, according to non-seasonally adjusted data, released last week by the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics.  That is 10.3 percent higher than 2011, when retailers added 660,200 extra workers over the final three months of the year.  The nearly 730,000 retail jobs added this year represents the strongest year-end hiring surge since 2006, when employment in the sector increased by 746,900.

The bulk of the 2012 holiday hiring occurred in October and November, when employment grew by 149,600 and 490,400 workers, respectively.  Retailers hired just 88,300 additional workers in December, which was actually down significantly from the 147,600 workers added in December 2011.

“The fact that holiday hiring in the retail sector reached pre-recession levels is remarkable for a few reasons.  More people are working, but many are still under-employed and, as a result, wages have remained stubbornly low.  So, spending power this year was not necessarily greater than a year ago.  Additionally, more people are shopping online, where increased holiday demand is more easily met without adding a lot of seasonal workers.   Yet, despite these factors, brick-and-mortar retailers moved forward with increased hiring,” said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

“An early Thanksgiving, which meant earlier Black Friday sales, may have contributed to an earlier hiring surge.  Additionally, a growing number of retailers opened their doors on Thanksgiving Thursday, which may have also boosted the need for extra hiring in order to ensure that enough workers were available to staff these holiday hours,” he noted.

Retail sales, excluding drug stores, increased 4.8 percent in December, according to Retail Metrics.  The International Council of Shopping Centers estimates that its members will show an increase about 4.0 percent total for December.  Meanwhile, e-commerce was up 14 percent for the entire holiday season, according to comScore.

“Some industry analysts are expecting retail sales to maintain some momentum into the new year, as consumers spend gift cards.  However, gift card traffic is unlikely to result retailers holding on to all of the extra holiday workers.  Some may stay, but the vast majority will be let go,” said Challenger.

After adding 660,200 seasonal workers over the final three months of 2011, retail employment fell by 789,400 in January and February 2012.

JOBS ADDED IN RETAIL TRADE

October, November, December, 1999-2012

Oct Nov Dec TOTAL Job Growth Compared to Previous Year 1999 172,200 369,100 308,200 849,500 8.0% 2000 143,600 393,800 250,800 788,200 -7.2% 2001 95,700 352,100 137,500 585,300 -25.7% 2002 125,800 350,500 193,200 669,500 14.4% 2003 145,000 305,100 189,800 639,900 -4.4% 2004 158,000 371,800 180,700 710,500 11.0% 2005 122,300 392,700 196,600 711,600 0.2% 2006 150,600 427,300 169,000 746,900 5.0% 2007 87,900 465,400 167,600 720,900 -3.5% 2008 38,600 213,600 72,700 324,900 -54.9% 2009 45,100 317,100 133,600 495,800 52.6% 2010 149,800 339,200 158,600 647,600 30.6% 2011 128,900    383,700 147,600 660,200 1.9% 2012 149,600    490,400 88,300 728,300 10.3% AVERAGE 122,364 369,414 171,014 662,793   Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., with non-seasonally adjusted data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

 

JOBS LOST IN RETAIL TRADE
January, February, 2005-2012
Jan Feb TOTAL 2005 -655,600 -139,400 -795,000 2006 -692,800 -178,400 -871,200 2007 -640,000 -160,600 -800,600 2008 -698,100 -232,700 -930,800 2009 -736,000 -249,200 -985,200 2010 -572,800 -167,700 -740,500 2011 -559,700 -166,500 -726,200 2012 -568,700 -220,700 -789,400

 

Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., with non-seasonally adjusted data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

November Holiday Hiring Strongest On Record

Retailers added 465,500 seasonal workers in November, the most ever added during what is typically the busiest hiring month of the holiday hiring season, according to an analysis of non-seasonally adjusted data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics by global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

The net gain in retail employment achieved last month barely surpassed the previous record set in 2007, when retail payrolls grew by 465,400 workers during the month of November.

November job gains were up 21 percent from the 383,700 seasonal workers hired by retailers a year ago.  Furthermore, October job gains in the retail sector were adjusted upward to 145,200 from an originally-reported figure of 130,100.

Retailers Add 130K Jobs In Oct, Slightly Better Than 2011

 While several large retailers have announced large-scale holiday hiring plans, employment gains in the retail sector last month were virtually unchanged from a year ago, according to an analysis of the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics data by global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

The 130,100 retail job gains last month were only slightly more than the 128,900 retail jobs added in October 2011.  The first month of holiday hiring both this year and last were down significantly from the 149,800 retail jobs created in October 2010.

While 2011 started slowly, retailers added another 531,300 workers in November and December for a total of 660,200 seasonal employment gains, the highest level since 2007.  In 2008 — the worst holiday-hiring season in 22 years — retailers added only 38,600 seasonal workers in October and only 324,000 total workers during entire holiday season of October through December.

“November will give us the best indication of how 2012 stacks up when it comes to holiday hiring.  It is likely that a lot more of the holiday hiring plans announced by national retailers, including J.C. Penney, Kohl’s, Best Buy and Macy’s, will show up in the November hiring figures,” said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

“It remains to be seen how the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy could impact retail hiring on the east coast.  These were highly populated areas that were affected.  There is a good chance that many people in the region will still be trying to rebuild their lives when the peak holiday shopping season starts in a few weeks.  Buying Christmas presents could fall pretty low on the list of priorities, which may mean that retailers in this area – many of whom are also facing significant damage – may hold off on planned holiday hiring,” said Challenger.

In its annual holiday hiring forecast released in September, Challenger predicted that seasonal hiring would be about the same or slightly higher than a year ago.

“Even before Hurricane Sandy, there was little evidence to suggest that retailers would return to the pre-recession levels of seasonal hiring, when retail employment gains averaged more than 720,000 extra workers added over the final three months of the year.  Retail sales are stronger than a year ago, but the economy is still a long way from full recovery and with more than 12 million Americans still unemployed, there are still a lot of potential holiday shoppers who remain on a very tight budget,” said Challenger.

# # #

JOBS ADDED IN RETAIL TRADE

October, November, December, 1999-2012

Oct Nov Dec TOTAL Job Growth Compared to Previous Year 1999 172,300 369,000 308,100 849,400 8.0% 2000 143,700 393,800 250,600 788,100 -7.2% 2001 95,700 352,000 137,600 585,300 -25.7% 2002 125,900 350,400 193,300 669,600 14.4% 2003 145,100 305,000 189,900 640,000 -4.4% 2004 157,800 371,800 180,600 710,200 11.0% 2005 122,300 392,700 196,400 711,400 0.2% 2006 150,600 427,200 169,000 746,800 5.0% 2007 87,900 465,400 167,500 720,800 -3.5% 2008 38,600 213,500 72,800 324,900 -54.9% 2009 45,100 317,000 133,700 495,800 52.6% 2010 149,800 339,200 158,600 647,600 30.6% 2011 128,900 383,700 147,600 660,200 1.9% 2012 130,100 130,100   AVERAGE 120,986 360,054 177,362 620,014     Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., using non-seasonally adjusted data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Announced Seasonal Hiring
September/October
Target	90,000
Macy’s	80,000
Kohl’s	52,700
Walmart	50,000
Amazon	50,000
Toys R Us	45,000
JC Penney	40,000
PartyCity	20,000
FedEx	20,000
GameStop	17,000
Best Buy	14,000
Hickory Farms (Food)	5,225
TOTAL	483,925

List compiled by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Amazon To Add 50,000 Seasonal Workers

Amazon To Hire 50,000 Seasonal Workers

Amazon will hire 50,000 temporary workers for the holiday season, adding to the ever-growing list of seasonal hires. Similar announcements have come from big-box retailers Wal-Mart and Target, as well as from Toys R Us, Macy’s, JC Penney, and Best Buy. Challenger predicts this year will see better hiring than last, but we are far from pre-recession levels.

 

Announced Seasonal Hiring
Target	Retail	90,000
Macy’s	Retail	80,000
Kohl’s	Retail	52,700
Wal-Mart	Retail	50,000
Amazon	Retail	50,000
Toys R Us	Retail	45,000
JC Penney	Retail	40,000
PartyCity	Retail	20,000
Gamestop	Retail	17,000
Best Buy	Retail	14,000
Hickory Farms	Food	5,225
TOTAL		463,925

 

September Job Cuts Up Slightly To 33,816

Downsizing activity remained relatively flat in September as US-based employers announced plans to cut 33,816 jobs from their payrolls during the month.  That was up 4.9 percent from a 20-month low of 32,239 job cuts in August, according to the latest report released Thursday by global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Last month’s total was 71 percent lower than a year ago, when planned job cuts unexpectedly surged to a 29-month high of 115,730.   It was, in fact, the lowest September total since 1997 when only 20,698 were announced.

September brings to an end one of the slowest job-cut quarters in over a decade.  Employers announced 102,910 job cuts in the third quarter, down 27 percent from the previous quarter (139,997), and 56 percent lower than the third quarter of 2011 (233,258).  It was the lowest quarterly total since the second quarter of 2000, when planned layoffs numbered 81,568.

Get the full report here.

2012 Holiday Hiring Outlook: Better Than Last Year

Retailers Hopeful for Sales Gains, But That May Not Translate To Increased Hiring

While solid back-to-school sales boosted the confidence of retailers heading into the all-important holiday season, the possibility of increased sales this year may not be enough to spur a significant increase in seasonal hiring, according to the outlook released Monday by global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

In its annual holiday hiring forecast, Challenger estimated that seasonal job gains are likely to be slightly higher than a year ago but still below pre-recession levels.  Those hoping to take advantage of the seasonal hiring should act early, as several sizable hiring plans announced by major retailers in September suggest that recruiting may start before October.

Last year, retail payrolls saw a non-seasonally adjusted net gain of 660,200 workers from October through December.  That was up just 1.9 percent from 2010, when retail employment increased by 647,600 workers during the holiday hiring season.  Prior to the recession, from 2004 through 2007, retail employment grew by an average of more than 722,000 over the final three months of the year.

“The economy has continued its slow recovery and surveys of retailers show that they are hopeful for solid sales gains this year.  However, recent consumer confidence readings have been relatively weak and unemployment remains stubbornly high.  The mixed picture is likely to compel retail employers to proceed cautiously when it comes to hiring extra workers for the holiday season.  Look for many to start at last year’s levels and hire additional workers only if strong sales early in the season warrant it,” said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

“Last year, retailers added just over 660,000.  This year, that figure could approach 700,000.  There is still too much uncertainty to expect seasonal employment gains to reach the level we saw in 2006, when retailers added nearly 747,000 extra workers at the end of the year.  We may never again reach the level of hiring achieved in 1999, at the height of the dot.com boom, when nearly 850,000 seasonal workers were added,” he added.

Get the full report here.

More Than 718,000 Seasonal Workers Hired For 2011 Holiday Season

Seasonal hiring in retail nearly returned to pre-recession levels in 2011, as employment in the sector experienced a net gain of 718,500 over the final three months of the year, according to an analysis of employment data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.  That marks a 14.5 percent improvement over the 627,500 seasonal jobs added 2010, and falls just shy of the 720,800 added in 2007, when the economy still relatively strong.

The analysis of non-seasonally adjusted data by global outplacement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. found that while October hiring was down from a year earlier, strong job gains in November and December fueled the surge.  November job gains increased 23 percent from 332,700 in 2010 to 409,800 this year.   Meanwhile, December job gains were up 20 percent from a year earlier to 188,600, which is the largest number of retail jobs added in the final month of the year since 196,400 jobs were created in 2005.

“Seasonal hiring was better than expected this year, particularly since the recovery was stumbling a bit just as we were approaching the period when retailers make their hiring decisions.   However, early sales and other measures to get people out to the stores and malls apparently created increased demand for extra holiday workers.  Strong Black Friday sales likely contributed to the December job gains,” said John A. Challenger, chief executive officer of Challenger, Gray & Christmas.

Retail sales in December were up about 3.4 percent from a year earlier, according to a survey of 22 major chains by Thomson Reuters.  Meanwhile, online sales were up 15 percent from a year ago, which helped create jobs outside of retail, as shipping firms like UPS and FedEx bulked up their rosters to help fulfill all of the online orders.

“Now, the question is whether the consumer will go into post-holiday hibernation.  Several retail experts have predicted that this year could see particularly weak January sales, as Americans try to recover from holiday spending, much of which was on credit cards,” said Challenger.

Credit card use over the Christmas season was up about 25 percent from a year earlier, according to America’s Research Group.

Over the last several years, retailers have cut more workers in January and February than they hired in the preceding three months.  After adding 627,600 seasonal workers over the final three months of 2010, retail employment fell by 739,700 in January and February 2011.

# # #

JOBS ADDED IN RETAIL TRADE

October, November, December, 1999-2011

	Oct	Nov	Dec	TOTAL	Job Growth Compared to Previous Year
1999	172,300	369,000	308,100	849,400	8.0%
2000	143,700	393,800	250,600	788,100	-7.2%
2001	95,700	352,000	137,600	585,300	-25.7%
2002	125,900	350,400	193,300	669,600	14.4%
2003	145,100	305,000	189,900	640,000	-4.4%
2004	157,800	371,800	180,600	710,200	11.0%
2005	122,300	392,700	196,400	711,400	0.2%
2006	150,600	427,200	169,000	746,800	5.0%
2007	87,900	465,400	167,500	720,800	-3.5%
2008	38,600	213,500	72,800	324,900	-54.9%
2009	45,100	317,000	133,700	495,800	52.6%
2010	144,100	332,700	150,800	627,600	26.6%
2011	127,100	409,800	181600	718,500	14.5%
AVERAGE	119,708	361,562	179,377	655,825

Source: Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., with non-seasonally adjusted data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

JOBS LOST IN RETAIL TRADE
January, February, 2005-2011
Jan Feb TOTAL 2005 -655,600 -139,200 -794,800 2006 -692,700 -178,400 -871,100 2007 -640,000 -160,600 -800,600 2008 -698,200 -232,600 -930,800 2009 -736,100 -249,000 -985,100 2010 -572,700 -167,800 -740,500 2011 -566,700 -173,000 -739,700